This is your in-depth analysis of every facet of the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LVIII game.

Greetings from The Ringer for Super Bowl LVIII week! We will discuss every facet of the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs game in Las Vegas, Nevada, in the coming days. To begin, let’s use a table setter: I’ve seen the movie, done the math, and cut through the clutter to find the top 25 things about this game that you should know. Now let’s get going!

1. I believe that for the third consecutive year, there will be a competitive Super Bowl, even though I run the danger of ruining it. In terms of total DVOA at the end of the regular season, the 49ers came in second and the Chiefs fifth. Two of the four teams (sorry, Cowboys and Ravens, hope you are enjoying Cancún) that ended in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA.

With Patrick Mahomes starting, the Chiefs are 88-25. Only four of those 25 losses have come by a margin of greater than eight points. To make my point more clearly, let me to put it this way: Just four opponents—or just 3.5 percent of them—have managed to defeat Mahomes by more than eight points in the 113 games he has started. Haters can now point out that one of those defeats occurred in the Super Bowl against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Still, you get the idea. It doesn’t occur frequently.

2. Additionally, blowouts are uncommon for this 49ers team. With Brock Purdy starting for them, they are 21-5, and only three of those defeats came by a margin of more than one possession. In the NFC title game against the Lions, we witnessed it. They can lead by a significant margin (in that game, it was 24–7), yet their offensive is so potent that they can quickly catch up. When there have been shootouts, they have usually prevailed. Does the short sample include some randomness? Yes. However, when the 49ers score at least 20 points in a game against Purdy (20-0), they have not lost.

3. The 49ers head coach and offensive playcaller Kyle Shanahan taking on Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the clash that has football nerds drooling. The Chiefs won both of their previous meetings between these two teams, one in Super Bowl LIV (31-20) and the other in Week 7 of the 2022 season (44-23). The performance of Shanahan’s offenses in those two games is as follows:

Shanahan’s Attack vs. the Spags

The 49ers offenses’ performance versus the Chiefs is displayed in percentiles, which are compared to all NFL games played over those two seasons. One statistic that gives less weight to turnovers and big plays is success rate. Stated differently, a 9-yard completion on third-and-7 is regarded as equal to a 50-yard completion on the same play. For the offense, both are considered successful. One technique to gauge down-to-down efficiency is as follows. As you can see, the 49ers offense was outstanding in the Super Bowl game based on success rate. Despite San Francisco’s crushing defeat in 2022, the offense continued to play above average.

4.  The 49ers offense and the Chiefs defense compare generally to this:

Chiefs Defense vs. 49ers Offense

Reiterating how excellent the 49ers offense has been this year is important. Not only did they lead the DVOA in the regular season, but San Francisco’s lead over the others was substantial. The 49ers’ advantage over the Miami Dolphins, who were ranked second, was identical to that of the Dolphins over the Chiefs, who were ranked eighth.

This is Shanahan’s strongest offensive performance to yet, if offensive success rate is our gauge. It’s only surpassed in terms of EPA per drive by the Super Bowl-winning Atlanta Falcons offense from 2016.

5. However, don’t write off the Chiefs defense! Through 20 games, they’ve only given up 15.6 points per game, which is the lowest average for any Chiefs defense since Andy Reid took over as head coach in 2013. It’s the second-best defense Reid has had in Kansas City in terms of projected points added per drive (his 2015 Chiefs were marginally better). I gave the Ravens credit late in the season for their versatility in winning games. Guess what we’ve observed with the Chiefs, then? They are also capable of doing it. The Bills game in the divisional round demanded supreme offensive production. They succeeded in delivering. The Ravens’ defense in the AFC championship game had to be absolutely phenomenal. And they also fulfilled that.

6.  Having to contend with the 49ers’ varied personnel usage is one of the difficult parts of the game. Using fullback Kyle Juszczyk in addition to Christian McCaffrey or another tailback, San Francisco is one of just two teams to use 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, and two wide receivers) on more than one-third of their offensive plays. With a league-high 10.9 percent of snaps, the 49ers have employed 22 players (two running backs, two tight ends, and one wide receiver).

This season, the Chiefs defense has faced 122 snaps with 21 and 22 players. On 74.6 percent of those snaps, they have been in their base defense lineup, which consists of four defensive linemen, three linebackers, and four defensive backs. About 25% of the time, they have been in sub packages, consisting of five or six defensive backs. The Chiefs don’t usually like to play like this. Their secondary is where they excel. They intend to throw a ton of defensive backs onto the field. However, with the 49ers playing with their hefty personnel packages, that is not possible to do.

7.  This season, at least 100 offensive snaps have been played by 76 different personnel groupings across the league. The 49ers’ four primary groupings rank among those 76 in terms of EPA per play as follows:

Main Personnel Groups for the 49ers

Yes, they were outstanding in any personnel grouping. However, their 22-man roster was the NFL’s most productive unit. The Chiefs, who rank sixth in the NFL in terms of EPA per play, have held up well against those 21 and 22 personnel looks while not having the largest sample size. Simple questions need to be answered by Kansas City as they get ready for this 49ers offense: Can the Chiefs hold up against the pass if they are in their base defense? Can they withstand the run if they are in their sub packages? In deciding who prevails in this side of the ball clash, the answers will be crucial.

8.  In terms of matchup advantages, the 49ers’ running game against the Chiefs’ run defense is by far their strongest. During the regular season, San Francisco’s running efficiency was ranked second, while the Chiefs’ run defense came in at 27th. “You’ve been harping on the Chiefs run defense all postseason and it hasn’t hurt them yet,” one may be thinking. “Grow a rest, bald man!” You’re not totally incorrect, though. In the playoffs, the Chiefs’ run defense has fared well against three potent rushing attacks.

Chiefs Manage Defense Effectiveness

Success rate is the metric we’re utilizing here, and once more, the percentiles compare the individual game performances to every game played so far this season in the NFL. When running the ball against the Chiefs, the Dolphins and Ravens were marginally better than league average. However, notice Bill’s number there. Buffalo came in fifth place overall out of the 568 rushing efforts we’ve watched this season! Even though they outran the Chiefs on the ground, their defense was unable to generate enough stops, and they were unable to generate enough explosive plays to win.

Although Buffalo’s and San Francisco’s run games are obviously different, I’m sure Shanahan will see the movie and get a strong sense that the 49ers can use McCaffrey to similarly blow the Chiefs out of the air. One thing in particular to watch out for is the Chiefs’ run defense when the 49ers are down to 11 players. When it comes to running the ball out of 11 personnel, the 49ers have the highest success percentage in the NFL, while the Chiefs defense ranks 31st in terms of success rate when it comes to defending such looks.

9.  The 49ers and Chiefs have a strength-on-strength passing game matchup. First, let’s look at this ridiculous table that shows Purdy’s performance according to different splits:

Purdy’s Results in Various Splits

The data just does not indicate a single area in which Purdy and the 49ers’ passing game have underperformed. They have responses for every type of look.

10.  Purdy’s game clearly distinguishes him from Jimmy Garoppolo, his predecessor, in a few areas. First of all, Purdy like pushing the ball downfield. With an average pass distance of 8.3 yards, he is tenth out of 32 quarterbacks who are eligible. When it comes to throws that go at least 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, Purdy has the best success rate in the NFL. Furthermore, in situations where his initial assessment isn’t available, he has the ability to make snap decisions. That was evident in the NFC title game. In addition to being a key component on scramble plays, Purdy also had a few plays in which he eluded pressure and found Juszczyk for significant completions.

11.  So how do we expect the Chiefs to play against Purdy and the passing game? One, they mix it up. They disguise themselves and evade security devices in an attempt to confuse Purdy and force him to make mistakes. This is one area where Purdy can be. Pro Football Focus lists the plays worth the turnover. These include plays like interceptions, instances where a quarterback makes a mistake but gets lucky. Among the 39 quarterbacks with at least 200 drops this season, Purdy’s turnover rate (3.5 percent) is 14. We’ve seen that many times. Purdy is not a conservative player. He takes risks. He puts the ball in danger. But opposing defenses will have to make him pay for those mistakes. Against the 49ers, it’s not about shutting them down completely and forcing a three-and-out. This is almost impossible to do. They are too talented and Shanahan is too good. It’s about forcing negative plays and taking advantage of turnover opportunities..

12.  In this game, the Chiefs won’t hesitate to use man coverage. This season, they have played man at a top-10 rate, and they are really proficient at it. The Chiefs were second in the league in terms of EPA per pass play out of the 28 teams that used man coverage for at least 100 snaps this season. They have complete faith in their corners, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams, and L’Jarius Sneed, and they have performed admirably. How are the 49ers going to assault them? San Francisco has frequently targeted the following individuals when it comes to man coverage:

49ers Snapshots vs. Man Reporting

The 49ers’ most effective receivers versus man coverage have been Kittle and Aiyuk. Aiyuk placed fourth in terms of yards per route run among 63 wide receivers who ran at least 100 routes versus man coverage, only behind DJ Moore, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. In contrast, Kittle led all tight ends in yards per route run versus man coverage by a significant margin. Justin Reid, a safety for the Chiefs, will be important to this matchup. He can play the run, blitz, and match up with tight ends. There’s value in circling Reid vs. Kittle. This game will be greatly influenced by the 49ers’ ability to win against man coverage, especially Aiyuk and Kittle.

13.  The intention of Kansas City is to pressure the 49ers into clear-cut passing situations. The Chiefs enjoy putting a ton of defensive backs on the field. Only three teams used as many dime (six defensive backs) as the Chiefs did in the regular season. Purdy enjoys pushing the ball downfield, as I indicated earlier, but this season the Chiefs are fourth in DVOA against long throws. In the AFC championship game, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tried downfield passes against the Chiefs but, for the most part, were unsuccessful. Here’s another instance of strength on strength. Purdy is probably going to take a few shots downfield. Who wins this game could be greatly influenced by his ability to connect.

14.  But the 49ers don’t just rely on those down throws to create explosives. They led the NFL with 75 receptions longer than 20 yards, and 49 of those were throws less than 20 yards from scrimmage. Shanahan does a great job of setting his playmakers and moving the ball. The 49ers led the NFL in yards per catch. We saw that in the NFC Championship game against Detroit. McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, the first quarterback can rarely bring them down. Are you ready for the most boring analysis you’ve ever heard? Solving is very important in this game! During the regular season, the leaders had only 39 attempts of more than 20 yards, the fewest in the NFL. But in yards after catch, they were close to the league average. In this game, they have to be able to keep those 11-yard runs from turning into 25-yard gains due to missing tackles.

15.  Then there is the front-line conflict. According to the stats, the matchup looks like this:

Chiefs Defense vs. 49ers Offense: Sack Rate and Pressure

The 49ers have a great left tackle in Trent Williams, but they don’t have a great offensive line. They are particularly vulnerable on the right side. You will notice that there is a big difference between San Francisco’s allowable pressure rate and the allowable bagging rate. Purdy is honored. Pro Football Focus features a metric called pressure relief. It’s simple: What percentage of quarterback pressures turn into sacks? For Purdy, that number is just 13.8 percent, fifth best among all starters. He is not always afraid of pressure. Often, Purdy stands still, absorbs a big hit, but gets an accurate pass at the right time. As the chart shows, the Chiefs sacked opposing quarterbacks at the highest rate in the NFL (8.6 percent). Their ability to finish when they get close to Purdy will be another big factor in this game..

16.  The Chiefs have hit (defined here as five or more passes) on 28.3 percent of their opponents’ dropbacks, which is 12th in the league. Based on the EPA’s passing game, the Chiefs were the NFL’s most efficient rushing team. Among the 25 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps this season, Purdy ranks first in both EPA in pass and completion percentage. Again: strength to strength! Spagnuolo is always aggressive, but he will have to decide how much he shines in this game. On four or fewer hurries, the Chiefs still have the NFL’s highest sack rate (8.3 percent). A big part of that is forcing opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball. The Chiefs are already sticky in coverage — and if they can put seven players in coverage, they’ve made it difficult for opponents. During kicks where the leaders do not throw, opposing quarterbacks held the ball for 3.02 seconds, the fourth best average in the NFL. This could be a winning formula for the Chiefs in this matchup..

17.  In order to attempt to block Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones, the 49ers must have a strategy. Jones has the ability to completely destroy possessions, as demonstrated against the Ravens. Thirteen more than any other Chiefs player, he has 32 QB hits. Jones will take multiple positions when he lines up, but expect Kansas City to match him up with either right tackle Colton McKivitz or right guard Jon Feliciano. George Karlaftis, the defensive end, is the other man the Chiefs need to perform. Karlaftis, who has 13 sacks for the squad, should have an advantage over McKivitz.

18.  The 49ers defense and the Chiefs offense match up as follows overall:

Chiefs Attack versus 49ers Defense

I would want to remind you that data does not always reveal the complete story. The Chiefs offense has fluctuated for the most of the season, and they had trouble against the Ravens in the second half of the AFC championship. Overall though, Kansas City has improved throughout the playoffs. If they maintained their performance for the whole 17-game season, their three postseason games’ EPA per drive would rank them as the third-best offensive in the NFL. It’s reasonable to argue that the Chiefs offense has performed better in the playoffs than it did during the regular season, but larger samples are always more beneficial than smaller ones.

And then we have the 49ers defense. The differences in the table above may confuse you, so let me explain: The DVOA rankings are for the regular season only and do not take into account the two playoff games. DVOA also adjusts for opponent strength, while EPA and success rate do not. The 49ers defense produced just a 53.6 percent completion percentage in two playoff games against the Packers and Lions. For context, the 53.6 percent success rate would have ranked 32nd had it continued through the regular season. Again, larger samples are more useful than smaller ones! The 49ers can play better in the Super Bowl than they did against the Packers and Lions; they had some pretty good defensive football at times during the regular season. But the way they have performed in the last two games is worrying..

19. Throughout the season, the Chiefs have played at least 100 snaps with three distinct personnel groups: 11 (one tight end, one running back, and three wide receivers); 12 (one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers); and 13 (one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver). Here is how the Chiefs have fared this season among the 76 personnel groupings that have been deployed on at least 100 snaps throughout the league:

Principal Personnel Groups of Chiefs

While none of the Chiefs’ three primary personnel groupings had very strong performances, as a whole, they were the greatest group of 11 players. In terms of the 49ers defense, they didn’t play much better against 11 players than they did against 12 and 13.

20.  Either way, the Chiefs’ running game has been average or below average this season. They finished the regular season ranked 17th in DVOA and enter the playoffs with a 27th pass percentage. But Kansas City showed their backs can take a toll in a one-game tryout. The Chiefs had their most efficient rushing game of the season in the divisional round against Buffalo and should have a chance to run the ball against the 49ers. San Francisco was mediocre (15th) against the run in the regular season, and the 49ers missed the playoffs. The Packers and Lions combined to rush 57 times for 318 yards — 5.6 yards per carry — against the 49ers. One specific area to watch: The Chiefs run the ball out of the 11 man. This has been a constant problem for the 49ers this season. They finished 28th in passing success rate when 11 opponents finished. In other words, the Chiefs may not want to rely on this many tight ends in this game. A better option might be to play three wide receivers, spread the 49ers out and use it..

21.  This season, the Chiefs’ passing offense has seen its ups and downs. I thought Kansas City was poor at offensive tackle and that Mahomes couldn’t trust his wide outs, so I buried them in late December. Mahomes ranks 10th in terms of EPA per throw play and seventh in terms of success percentage overall. Mahomes has improved this team as a whole even in a season where it has seemed like the supporting cast has stifled him. Here are Mahomes’s results throughout several categories:

Mahomes’s Outcome in Various Splits

Although the stats may not be as striking as they were in other years, you won’t find any magic bullet that can stop Mahomes from winning. He is still capable of handling almost any kind of issue.

22.  What defensive strategy will the 49ers employ, then? San Francisco is a line-up-and-play defense in general. The 49ers believe in playing zone coverage, defending the center of the field, and getting to the quarterback with four pass rushers. Coordinator Steve Wilks mixes in disguise and some wrinkles. Looking at the full season with a zoomed-out perspective, that idea has worked fairly well. When it comes to zone defense, they are ranked eighth.

Conversely, the Chiefs have evolved into a club that primarily uses tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Rashee Rice as pass targets. This is particularly valid when rivals engage in zone play. Rice has 852 receiving yards versus zone coverage, compared to 962 for Kelce. There isn’t a single Chiefs player with more than 260. Kelce possesses a unique talent for reading the defense and spotting gaps in coverage. The 49ers were fourth in DVOA versus tight ends during the regular season, but Kelce was outstanding in the AFC championship, catching all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He has proven that, in high-pressure situations, he can still perform at an elite level.

23.  The Chiefs offense has one very specific way: 49ers quarterback Nick Bosa destroys plays. Bosa will line up on either side, but when he’s at left tackle and facing Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor, it’s a big mismatch in San Francisco’s favor. Taylor has committed 24 penalties in 20 games and is struggling against the Ravens in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs can’t afford him to go one-on-one with Bosa in every pass defense. I expect this matchup to be central to Kansas City’s game plan. Expect them to use every tactic in the book — pocket moves, plays, fakes, quick throws to the rim, screens — to neutralize Bosa. In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions did a great job of guarding the perimeter, exploiting San Francisco’s aggressiveness on the defensive end. I hope the Chiefs try something similar — especially early in this game..

24. This is the general picture of the front-end battle:

49ers Defense Pressure and Sack Rate Compared to Chiefs Offense

The numbers suggest the 49ers’ pass rush has impacted games more than their totals suggest. But Mahomes is just an absolute wizard who hits. This is perhaps his most underrated ability. Only 10.4 percent of Mahomes’ pressures have turned into a sack this season. That is second only to Josh Allen in the NFL.I mentioned Bosa above, but the other 49ers pass rushers were a bit underpowered. Bosa’s 41 quarterback catches are 27 more than any other player on the team. Defensive end Javon Hargrave had moments in the regular season, but has zero sacks and quarterback hits with 59 hurries in two playoff games. The 49ers traded for defensive end Chase Young in the offseason, but he disappointed. Young has zero sacks and zero quarterback hits in the postseason with 51 pass completions and has struggled against the run. Overall, the 49ers have 11 quarterback hits through two playoff games, but Bosa has nine of them. Whether it’s Hargrave, Young, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw or someone else, San Francisco needs other pass rushers to win one-on-ones in this game.

25.  Let us close with this thought about Mahome. In his most productive seasons, we marveled at Muhammad’s ability to make one-percent plays. The likes of Houdini escape. High difficulty throws. Creativity and magic. But this postseason called for something else. Mahomes has shown that he can accurately interpret every play to win. And in many ways, the playoffs defined his focus on avoiding mistakes. According to PFF’s rankings, Mahomes isn’t worth a turnover in 114 postseason games. He has no turnovers and just two sacks in three games. It’s not even close to the best team the Chiefs had with Mahomes, but finding his way with this group would be perhaps his most impressive accomplishment..